While it is true that the voting power of the Millennials can be overstated and 2008 may be viewed in retrospect as an aberration, and while the Bush Recession has impacted on both parties, this is the long story short:
The future of the Republican Party can be seen as a set of false teeth in a bedside water glass. The capacity of the Democrats to be their own worst enemy is boundless, but as long as the GOP and their geriatric base is determined to defeat The President With A Funny Name at any cost as opposed to being an opposition party that offers appealing alternatives attractive to people not yet eligible for Medicare and Social Security, it will face electoral disaster in November and 2012.
The numbers do not lie.
You are wrong about this November. Unless the economy shows signs of life, at the very least the GOP will make substantial - 25-35 seats - gains in the House. A stalk of celery would beat a Democrat in some of these competitive districts. Dramatically decreased turnout at mid terms will doom the Democrats to big losses - perhaps even a GOP takeover of the House if things are bad enough or the Republicans actually come up with a decent agenda.
I agree about 2012. I don't see anyone challenging Obama unless he really screws things up. Even then, perhaps only Romney might be competitive. And some of those gains made in 2010 are likely to fall by the wayside unless the GOP actually, you know, like governs for the next two years. How a party that hates government so much can actually do something about governing will be quite entertaining to watch.
ed.Comment Posted By shaun On 23.02.2010 @ 10:22
To suggest that a president, even this one, can change the political culture in Washington is well beneath your usual powers of thinking.
Virtually everyone is on the take, many pols are pathological liars and serial adulterers, and now The Supreme Court Inc. with CEO John Roberts in the van has given moneyed interests carte blanche to buy their chosen handmaidens into office.
The only thing that will change the political culture in Washington is a pandemic.Comment Posted By shaun On 21.01.2010 @ 11:18
Thank you for this post. Some random thoughts:
* Those thousands of U.S. troops are actually only 3,000 or so Army and Marine regulars. Those services are severely overextended because of Afghanistan and That Other War.
* I recommend today's David Brooks column in the NYTimes as a crash course on why Haiti was in such dire straits BEFORE the earthquake.
* That sound of one hand clapping is for the Robertsons, Limbaughs and other right-wing darlings, as well as Fox News talk-show hosts, most of whom are doing virtually nothing on the catastrophe. After all, Scott Brown is THE story of the hour.
* By all means contribute relief money, but do not give it to the American Red Cross, an organization with a long track record of being corrupt. I myself would recommend the Mennonite Central Committee (http://mcc.org).Comment Posted By Shaun On 15.01.2010 @ 11:16
Hi. I'm the librul that can't wait for conservatism to get back on its feet, but I fear that things are so parlous that it will take more than a couple more 2008-like smash-ups for that to happen.
Anyhow, a terrific bookend to yesterday's post.
Thank you.Comment Posted By shaun On 14.01.2010 @ 15:10
You are totally on your game here, Rick. I look forward to Part Two.Comment Posted By shaun On 12.01.2010 @ 13:47
You fundamentally -- and I would say with malice of forethought -- mischaracterize the Obama administration policy toward terrorists. As has been noted repeatedly in recent days, including Peter Baker's exhaustive takeout in the NYTimes, Obama has continued many of the Bush administration's policies while discarding the Chicken Little-Waterboard Everyone In Sight approach.
Meanwhile, it's good to have you back on your feet. Just try to keep them out of your mouth.Comment Posted By shaun On 4.01.2010 @ 12:37
You and I could not be more different in some key ideological respects, but I agree with you absolutely, Rick.
I would like to make a modest suggestion for the New Year. Because I cannot imagine that the Republican Party and what remains of the conservative movement can do much more to emasculate itself (altho the JBS sponsorship is a nice touch), might you from time to time bring us word of worthy efforts to resuscitate the party and movement as they occur? Which I hope they will.
And may you and your saner commenters have a great holiday.Comment Posted By Shaun On 23.12.2009 @ 10:41
Alas, an off day for Mr. Moran.
Transnationalism has only slightly more import than transexualism and only then because people like Darth Cheney get the vapors every time that Obama opens his mouth and you have a topic that allows you to use big words.Comment Posted By shaun On 9.12.2009 @ 14:29
Long story short, Dick Cheney is not a traitor for calling President Obama as much on the eve of his West Point speech but you are.
Terrific post.Comment Posted By shaun On 3.12.2009 @ 12:14
Amen.Comment Posted By shaun On 17.11.2009 @ 12:18