The discoveries that the time-integral of sunspot counts correlates with the energy increase of the planet and that added ghgs have had no significant effect on average global temperature are based primarily on engineering fundamentals using data available from scientists. The continued predictive ability of the model will continue to prove that it is valid while the failure of the IPCC's GCMs to predict for years now shows that they have been misleading.
At worst, the discovery shows what to look for when trying to predict average global temperature and shows that the IPCC have been looking at the wrong thing.
The threat to freedom and prosperity specifically referred to misguided actions that some politicians were advocating (Cap and Trade) based on the misinformation. With climategate that threat has been substantially reduced.
Without the threat to freedom and prosperity the discoveries matter little except as an early warning to the coming cold.Comment Posted By Dan Pangburn On 2.12.2009 @ 14:09
The purpose of ALL models is to predict. Some do a better job of it than others.
The IPCC GCMs have failed to predict as shown e.g. at http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/co2_report_july_09.pdf .
The model presented in the October 14 pdf at http://climaterealists.com/index.php?tid=145&linkbox=true accurately predicts average global temperatures since 1895. Unknowns in the model were determined using measured data from prior to 1975.
Since 2000 the atmospheric carbon dioxide level has increased 18.8% of the increase from 1800 to 2000. According to the average of the five reporting agencies, the average global temperature has not changed much for several years and during the seven years from 2002 through 2008 the trend shows a DECREASE of 1.8°C/century. This SEPARATION between the increasing carbon dioxide level and not-increasing average global temperature is outside of the 'limits' of all of the predictions of the IPCC and 'consensus' of Climate Scientists. The separation has been increasing at an average rate of about 2% per year since 2000. It corroborates the lack of connection between atmospheric carbon dioxide increase and average global temperature.
As the atmospheric carbon dioxide level continues to increase and the average global temperature doesn’t it is becoming more and more apparent that the IPCC and many Climate Scientists have made an egregious mistake and a whole lot of people have been misled.
Without human caused global warming there is no human-caused climate change. Any activity to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide to reduce climate change is a mistake that takes away freedom and prosperityComment Posted By Dan Pangburn On 30.11.2009 @ 07:09
It is becoming apparent why tens of billions of dollars have been spent in futile efforts to prove that added CO2 caused Global Warming while an unpaid engineer with a desk-top computer and using simple engineering analysis has discovered the real cause of the temperature run-up in the 20th century. With this discovery, changes to ghg levels have been found to have no significant effect on climate and Natural Climate Change has been verified. This does not show that added ghgs have zero effect. It does show that the temperature anomalies can be accurately calculated by ignoring any effect from changes to the level of ghgs.
The validity of any model depends on its predictive ability. The AOGCMs that the IPCC uses have been ‘trained’ relentlessly to fit more than a century of data (how many dof were used to do that ‘training’?). They have failed miserably to predict anything since about 2001. All of the unknowns in the ‘model’ presented in the October 14 pdf at http://climaterealists.com/index.php?tid=145&linkbox=true could be determined using data prior to about 1975. This model gives an excellent prediction of temperatures after then.
However, just because this model does a phenomenal job of ‘predicting’ average global temperatures since 1895 does not mean that it will continue to do so forever. The ‘effective ocean turnover’, although overwhelmingly dominated by the (time-integral of the) PDO index, is actually the net effect of multiple ocean turnovers that happened to coincide in a way that resulted in the observed pattern for the 20th century and so far in the 21st century. Perhaps these individual ocean turnovers can be sorted out and time constants determined so that the net ocean turnover can be projected into the future. If the sunspot count can also be predicted than this model can be used to predict future average global temperature. Lacking any of this, the projection shown on the graph remains the best estimate of the lower limit to the future temperature trend. If the quiet sun continues, the trend of actual measurements of average global temperature should be close to that lower limit.
Your analogy of the rock is an interesting one. I can think of two issues with it: 1) Our rock moves i.e. the average global temperature changes and 2) the assumption must be that each of the 'causes' contributes a part of the 'force'. The alternative is the illogical assumption that one or both of the 'causes' is sharply nonlinear. Since one of the 'forces' accounts for all of the change the other 'force' must be insignificant.Comment Posted By Dan Pangburn On 28.11.2009 @ 16:11
First, you assert that I said something that I didn’t say and then you berate me for having said it. How does that work? I continuously search for credible evidence of whether I am right or not even when I am ‘certain’. Given that, maybe I should weasel-word it a bit and say I am very nearly certain. No, I'm certain . . .
Statistical analysis was not used or needed in this work so reference to ‘null hypothesis’ is not relevant.
Apparently you did not spend enough time looking at the paper and then jumped to erroneous conclusions. You overlooked that the 'energy out', proportional to the fourth power of average global absolute temperature, was subtracted from the 'energy in' leaving the energy change which is proportional to average global temperature change. The flaw is in your failure to accurately read and understand what is written.
Perhaps the following description of the research will be easier to understand: According to the first law of thermodynamics, energy in minus energy out equals change in energy stored. The historical coincidence of low sunspot count with low temperature suggests the hypothesis that there is a connection. To get to energy and the first law, take the time-integral of sunspot count. NOAA has a site that gives a daily average sunspot count for each year so, to integrate with a time step of a year, just add the numbers for each year up to the year of interest. That would be ‘energy in’.
The rate that energy is radiated from the planet is proportional to the fourth power of the absolute temperature. Multiply this by the number of years to get to the same ‘year of interest’. The result of this is ‘energy out’ and the difference is energy change or net energy. Then multiply the energy change by a constant to make the net energy from 1700 to about 1940 have a fairly level trend. That requires a constant of 0.00000000636 which in scientific notation is written 6.36E-9.
The difference, energy in minus energy out, is the change in energy stored in the planet. The change in energy of the planet is indicated by the average global temperature. To get values close to the temperature anomalies, divide the ‘change in energy’ by 4000. Subtract a constant value of 0.4 from each of these values that you calculate to offset the data to overlay measured temperature anomalies. Graph this and you will discover a temperature run-up in the last half of the 20th century.
The planet’s temperature is dominated by the temperature of the oceans. The oceans circulate and ‘turn over’ so that sometimes warmer temperatures are at the surface and sometimes colder temperatures, so measured average surface temperatures can go up and down without any change in the overall average energy that the oceans contain. Assume an oscillating temperature trend factor due to effective ocean turnover that starts at +0.45 in 1877 and declines linearly for 32 years to zero in 1909 then increases linearly for 32 years back to +0.45 in 1941, then back down linearly again to zero in 1973, linearly up to 0.45 in 2005 and linearly down to zero again in 2037.
Now add the anomalies calculated from sunspot energy to the anomalies calculated from effective ocean oscillation and you will discover that you have done a remarkable job of tracking the measured temperatures of the entire 20th century and on into the 21st century. Alternatively, go to the October 14 pdf at http://climaterealists.com/index.php?tid=145&linkbox=true to see the resulting graph showing an overlay of the calculated and measured temperatures. The temperature decline from 1941 to 1973 was about 57% less than it would have been without the high sunspot-count time-integral during that period. The average global temperature increase from 1973 to 2005 was about 47% more than it would have been without the high sunspot-count time-integral during that period. It was not necessary to consider any contribution from CO2 or any other greenhouse gas.
There are actually 4 ‘constants’ that were discovered during the research. A fifth value is applied as a simple offset on the graph to show how accurately the calculated temperature anomalies match the measured temperature anomalies.
6.36E-9 is required to make temperatures from 1700 to about 1940 have a level trend.
The 4000 value accounts for the effective thermal capacitance to “get values close to temperature anomalies”.
The third and fourth constants that were discovered during the research account for effective ocean turnover oscillation and do not change the time-averaged (over 64 years) energy stored. The time-integral of the PDO index is very closely proportional to this effective ocean turnover oscillation.
Again, since this is a deterministic engineering analysis and not a statistical analysis, the concept of degrees-of-freedom does not apply. I have no idea whether your undergrad statistics professor would have also failed to understand this type of analysis.
As to the “extension of this line beyond the present”, the line shown beyond the present is a lower-limit trend (which is the expected trend if there are no sunspots). It assumes that the factors that have controlled the average global temperature since 1895 continue. My statement (that you quoted) stands.
I really don’t know why apparently no one considered the time-integral of sunspots before. Sunspot count or a time factor have been considered with poor correlation. Perhaps the scientists that did that work were not as familiar with the first law of thermodynamics as Mechanical Engineers are. If they knew what the second law is they would know that it is not a pertinent factor in this discussion.
As this research shows, increased greenhouse gasses have no significant effect on average global temperature. The quiet sun is allowing the planet to cool. The good news is that because of the huge thermal capacitance of the oceans (the top 3.5 meters of the oceans is equivalent in thermal capacitance to the entire atmosphere) the planet will cool slowly. But we may eventually face crop failure and famine from shortened growing season.Comment Posted By Dan Pangburn On 26.11.2009 @ 22:55
I was once a skeptic but the research presented in the 14 October pdf at http://climaterealists.com/index.php?tid=145&linkbox=true has made me CERTAIN.Comment Posted By Dan Pangburn On 25.11.2009 @ 06:26
If not a crock, AGW is at least an egregious mistake.
All of the average global temperatures for the entire 20th century and so far in the 21st century are readily and accurately determined with no consideration whatsoever needed of changes to the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide or any other greenhouse gas.
Data sources, an eye-opening graph that overlays the measured and calculated temperatures from 1880 to 2008 and a detailed description of the method are in the paper dated October 14 at http://climaterealists.com/index.php?tid=145&linkbox=true .
This research shows that there is no significant Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) (and therefore no human caused climate change) from added atmospheric carbon dioxide or any other added greenhouse gas.Comment Posted By Dan Pangburn On 22.11.2009 @ 23:19
There is no historical data that supports the premise that human activity has any significant effect on climate. The observation of glaciers melting may look dramatic on TV but does not show that human activity is the cause. There is, however, substantial evidence that atmospheric carbon dioxide level does not significantly influence climate. You can check the global warming issue out yourself. Credible websites are included in my post at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/perspectives.htmlComment Posted By Dan Pangburn On 2.03.2008 @ 22:15
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