Comments Posted By Bill Mitchell, Raleigh, NC
Displaying 11 To 20 Of 32 Comments
McCAIN NOW CROWNED "MR. INEVITABLE"
Romney has EXPLODED to an 8 point lead on Rasmussen Markets. He was down 20 to McCain yesterday.
I know things like Intrade and Rasmussen Markets seem stupid and useless, but so far this season, they have done better than most pollsters at predicting outcome.
Comment Posted By Bill Mitchell, Raleigh, NC On 15.01.2008 @ 13:35
Rick,
Sounds very plausible except for one thing. McCain is going to LOSE MI today and probably badly.
Intrade has Romney up 20 points since just the morning as news of light turnout comes in and VERY VERY few Dems showing up on a funky, snowy day to vote McCain.
The Mitchell (no relation to me) Poll, which has been VERY accurate in MI politics for a while, had Romney up 6 today after having him down by 9 (i think) last week.
If McCain gets beat in MI where he had every advantage:
1. NH Momentum.
2. Open Primary.
3. No Dems Running.He will be mortally wounded.
Comment Posted By Bill Mitchell, Raleigh, NC On 15.01.2008 @ 13:31
All that being said, I so believe he would make a fine VP to Romney. He could learn management from Romney (who has HUGE experience in that area) and he would provide the conservative "gravitas" Romney lacks.
Romney does tend to pander (and I like Romney so I'm being serious here) and I think he could learn a thing or two from Fred about not doing that.
All-in-all, a Romney/Thompson ticket would be well-balanced. Also, to this point, Romney and Thompson have taken very few "shots" at each other except for the occasional "and I though I was the only actor on the stage" comment in the debates.
Comment Posted By Bill Mitchell, Raleigh, NC On 15.01.2008 @ 04:31
Here's my problem(s) with Fred:
1. Every time I hear Fred speak, I just expect..."more". I expect the clear-spoken, hard-hitting "tough-but-fair" character he has always played on TV and in the Movies.
But I find that there is just somethng about him that leaves me ...bored. I can't think of any other word. He just seems to have no zip. It's like he doesn't really really really want the job (he said he didn;t so I guess that makes sense).
2. He has NO requisite experience at all. None. Zip. Zero. Don't believe me? Ok, name for me 5 things Fred Thompson has achieved in his professional life that qualify him to be the planet's #1 Executive?
I've asked this question on pro-Fred blogs before and have to this point never received more than 2.
CONCLUSION:
Fred is a nice guy and a reasonably good conservative (although the man admittedly doesn't even attend church), but he has two glaring problems: 1) he is DULL, 2) he has NO EXPERIENCE.Think about this. Usually, someone with the kind of outstanding management skills required to be POTUS would have sought out management positions throughout life. Their resume would drip with "lead this" and "managed that" and "spear-headed the other", but Fred has NONE of that. Name for me Fred's 5 greatest accomplishments while in the Senate. See you can't. He IS NOT a leader.
Great managers are built over time and tested in the fires of reality. Fred wants us to believe that just because he can spin a good yarn, refuse to raise his hand in a debate and is a good conservative, he is qualified to manage. I'm not buying it.
The ONE THING Fred HAS MANAGED that we can evalute is HIS CAMPAIGN. If THAT is any indication of his skillset, we would be in deep trouble with him as POTUS.
Comment Posted By Bill Mitchell, Raleigh, NC On 15.01.2008 @ 04:24
Romney/Thompson Ticket for 2008.
Comment Posted By Bill Mitchell, Raleigh, NC On 14.01.2008 @ 20:18
GOP DEBATE AN EXERCISE IN PILING ON
Zogby and Suffolk BOTH have Romney SURGING into the lead in NH!
Suffolk has Romney ahead by 3 and Zogby has him ahead by 1. 2 days ago, Zogby had Romney down by 4. Zogby nailed Iowa.
Then you have the crazy outliers like ARG with McCain +14 (who the hell pays those guys?). They also said Clinton would win Iowa by 9 ('nuff said).
You say you cannot see Romney "winning" NH. Well, as a "proportional" state, he doesn't need to "win".
The KEY is Michigan. If Romney loses NH to McCain then loses Michigan to McCain, I agree, he is probably finished. If he loses NH but wins MI (61 delegates, winner-take-all), he is then the prohibitive favorite going into SC.
Comment Posted By Bill Mitchell, Raleigh, NC On 6.01.2008 @ 10:33
Why does the MSM say NH is it for Romney
Because, they know it isn't.Right now, Romney has the delegate lead with 26. Because NH is being punished for moving up their primary date, they will only have 12 delegates at the convention instead of 24.
NH is a "proportional" state, i.e., delegates get doled out based upon % of votes received (as opposed to MI, SC and FL which are "winner-take-all").
So even if Romney loses NH to McCain, he will still likely receive 4 delegates to McCain's 5.
This means that going into Michigan (winner-take-all with 61 delegates) Romney will have a significant delegate lead over the rest of the field.
So Romney can come in second if NH, but if he wins MI, he will then have 91 delegates. The next closest challanger will be Huckabee with 21.
The MSM knows that if THAT happens, it will be hard NOT to admit Romney is the LEADER (by far).
Do the math. Second in NH and first in Michigan and Romney probably wins this thing going away.
Comment Posted By Bill Mitchell, Raleigh, NC On 6.01.2008 @ 10:27
RE: MY "UNBEARABLE TRUTH" POST
Let me be the first to say this:
John McCain has NO CHANCE to win NH!
Why? Simple, one word. Obama. If you look at the most recent polling data, Mitt is blowing McCain away amongst conservatives. McCain holds the edge amongst Independents. Rasmussen says 2/3rd of Independents lean Democrat.
Mitt can thank his lucky stars that 1) Obama won Iowa and 2) Obama is trailing Clinton in NH. If you were a left-leaning Independent, who would you rather vote for 1) JFK Part Deux or 2) scraggly old McCain?
Easy, Obama. The BIG turnout of Independents McCain got in 2000 won't materialize this time. They will be voting for Obama. This is a HUGE problem for McCain. He loses. Mitt wins. New race.
Comment Posted By Bill Mitchell, Raleigh, NC On 5.01.2008 @ 09:48
FACING UP TO THE UNBEARABLE TRUTH
Evangelicals aren't dumb, just myopic and uninformed.
My sister and her husband are evangelicals. Want to know the last time they watched the news? Never. They support Huckabee. Want to know how much they know about amnesty and Dumond and tax raises? Nothing. They don't care.
They care about one thing. That Huckabee is an evangelical Christian.
Comment Posted By Bill Mitchell, Raleigh, NC On 4.01.2008 @ 17:15
"THE RICK MORAN SHOW: IOWA CAUCUSES" - 2 HOUR LIVE SPECIAL EDITION
Huckabee in NH. Non-player.
McCain in NH? No chance as Independents vote for Obama.
Romney wins NH and people will, forget Huck ever won Iowa.
Ronald Reagan lost Iowa.
Comment Posted By Bill Mitchell, Raleigh, NC On 4.01.2008 @ 10:22
